Working as I do in Calgary, some distance from Edmonton and the Alberta legislature, my encounters with Premier Ed Stelmach are infrequent and generally confined to perspiring media scrums in which questions about this subject and that, and then a half dozen more are fired at random. There’s seldom any continuity, followup, no real theme struck and then pursued, which is how Stelmach’s minders like it because potential snares won’t snap shut.
But even though he’s for the most part shielded by the scrum format, Stelmach doesn’t do very well. The answers limp back to the horde, punctuated by long pauses, groping for words, a lot of ers and ums, and in fact Stelmach sometimes won’t approach reporters at all until the minders have taken him aside and re-briefed on what questions may be in store.
A Premier should know, you’d think, what might be coming at him, which is to say he should know the topics of the day, whether major or minor. But Stelmach often blinks in apparent bewilderment, and will sometimes veer off into absurdity when asked why things in Alberta don’t seem to be going quite as they might be.
As in: Would the Premier have something to say about a Fraser Institute survey in which oil and gas executives described the Alberta royalty structure as the worst of all the producing provinces in Canada? It might have been expected Stelmach would respond with well…ah….the Fraser Institute y’know, well….ah….the Fraser Institute is just one man’s opinion and y’know ah…..the only opinion that counts is the um….voters’ opinion. But instead he went gamboling off and said “our population is increasing and our birth rate is going up dramatically. We’re delivering, I think, 140 babies a day, so that’s the positive side.”
How nice that babies arrive in our midst while at the same time natural gas drillers depart, billions in provincial deficits loom, and banks eagerly await the arrival of Stelmachian envoys seeking loans.
I’m told and I’ve read that Stelmach, notwithstanding his bumbling public image (his speeches, especially in Calgary, are typically rewarded with reluctant murmurings of applause) is a remarkably cagey politician, very good on the streets, in the coffee shops, one on one, just talkin’ to folks, and that takes us back to December 2nd, 2006.
Edward Michael Stelmach, farmer, once-upon-a-time municipal reeve, Tory MLA, four-time cabinet minister, won the Conservative Party leadership against what on the face of it were very long odds. He’d finished a distant third in round one of balloting to the front runner, Jim Dinning, but in the week between the first and second votes, Stelmach’s troops mounted a startling display of in-the-trench politics and put Dinning away.
(After Ralph Klein’s long stint as Premier, Dinning had the ABC thing – Anybody But Calgary – going against him, it’s true, but he also ran a dreadful campaign. You can’t be a city slicker going out into the country with brand new boots, brand new western shirt, jeans, and a belt buckle gleaming like the headlight on a train. Rural people see through that kind of mannequin in a microsecond and they don’t buy it. Too smooth by half, was Jim).
But still, Stelmach had been just dimly in view after the initial voting and his recovery was the result of classic voter roundup: collar them one by one, two by two, make sure, dead certain, they’re committed for a runoff (in effect, a third ballot) and then corral them for the showdown. Stelmach and his campaign lieutenants did exactly that.
It was a euphoric moment that night up in Edmonton, and Stelmach then went on to obliterate the Liberals and NDP in the provincial election of March 3, 2008. The Tories won 72 of 83 legislature seats: game, set, and match.
But almost right away the fumbling started. In late May that year, the Premier helped himself to a gigantic 30% salary increase – $159,450 a year to $213,450 just like that – and cabinet ministers got in on the act, too: $142,000 to $184,000. And then there was the contorted effort to revise the royalty structure in the oil and gas patches, in order that Albertans might get their “fair share” of energy wealth.
The whole royalty exercise, to which the Fraser Institute survey referred, was a page out of the Liberal policy handbook or worse, the NDP. And as soon as the revisions became law, Stelmach and his ministers started backing off, mucking and stirring around with tax incentives because of “unintended consequences,” the most serious of which was legions of natural gas drillers abandoning Alberta for more welcoming regulatory enclosures in Saskatchewan and British Columbia. Thousands of jobs lost, the energy business plummeting, and Alberta is turning out 140 babies a day.
But not to worry. Even if Calgary oil and gas executives are alienated, en masse, by the provincial government the city itself is bedrock blue and certainly the rural stronghold remains intact. The opposition parties, Liberal and NDP, have no chance in the countryside: the mere party names are enough to make good rural Albertans shudder so Tory they are and Tory they’ll always be.
Stelmach should read a recent column by a man named Will Verboven, who’s the editor of Alberta Farmer. It’s the largest circulation agricultural publication in the province, and Verboven’s piece is headlined “Rural Folk Angry with Stelmach.” It goes on to say “this government’s arrogance has no bounds when it feels you are a captive voter,” and then cites a Stelmach policy which trampled all over the Alberta Beef Producers (ABP) and left them writhing in the dust. The ABP legislation is not the only issue Verboven discusses, and he concludes there may well be an opportunity, now, for a somewhat right-of-centre party to take the Stelmachians on.
I’ve never met Will Verboven and I don’t profess for one second to be an expert on rural affairs, but I’m guessing this man is. You don’t get to be editor of a major farm magazine without knowing the agriculture business and more significantly, the people who work in it. (The Alberta Beef Producers has a membership of 28,000 farmers and ranchers).
But as I’ve already noted the NDP and Liberals are pretty well out of sight and out of mind in this province, so there’s no choice, right? Right.
Stelmach had best watch out. Things could change because the most interesting political story in Alberta is beginning to evolve around a woman named Danielle Smith. She’s 38 years old, bright, articulate, a smart businesswoman, experienced in media, right of centre, and she’s looking to assume the leadership of the Wildrose Alliance Party.
Only a fool would predict, straight up, that if Smith takes over the WA on October 17th then it’ll be lights out for Stelmach. But for the first time in living memory, there could be an opposition party out there which might just pull in some of those rural folks who’ve always voted Tory, but are now “angry with Stelmach.”
Twenty-eight thousand irritated farmers and ranchers would be a start, and you can be sure Danielle Smith wouldn’t be arrayed in shiny boots, a new shirt, and big belt buckle while mixing in with them.
Smith has competition for the WA crown. Calgary chiropractor Mark Dyrholm is in the race, but as of now Smith is odds on to win it. Mind you if she does, it’ll be a bare beginning: membership and fundraising drives will have to follow, and in particular Smith will need to subdue the Genghis Khan, nutbar, extreme right wing of the party.
But let’s assume for the moment she takes over. One suspects Stelmach may try to brush her aside as a minor annoyance. That’s what he did when Greenpeace set up shop in Edmonton a couple of years ago, and look what it got him: “Dirty Oil” as the new Alberta logo.
Let me be plain. I have no truck with Greenpeace types, but history verifies they’re relentless and masterful propagandists. Stelmach and the Tories, and the oil boys for that matter had no idea what they were facing – and they’re still trying to recover.
Ah, well. Look on the “positive side.” Another 140 babies by day’s end. Ed Stelmach says so.