The Dippers:
I take a measure of comfort, a teaspoon’s worth perhaps, in being among dozens of false prophets around the country. My bold prediction that Jack Layton, after decisvely winning the English language TV debate during the election campaign, would then toddle onward to the typical NDP caucus of 30-odd MPs was matched by equally offside forecasts from every editorial writer and columnist in the land.
I’ve been wrong before, but seldom so dramatically. However, we cannot attribute the NDP arrival as official opposition in the Commons to simple electoral mathematics in Quebec. The party increased its vote total in all parts of Canada, to nearly double its tally of 2008. Almost without exception, it held on to its seats in Ontario and western Canada, and its final total of 102 wins unquestionably makes the NDP the second most powerful political entity in Canada.
The fact remains, though, that the bulk of its support came from Quebec – the so-called playschool rush – which places the NDP in the odd and potentially tricky position of advocacy for that province, while maintaining its historical posture as a federalist party. Already, two of Layton’s crew have suggested the New Democrats will respect Quebec sovereignty if it comes to that, and in fact one of the youngsters allowed that Quebec will indeed become a separate nation: it’s merely a question of time.
Jack Layton doesn’t need that kind of nonsense going into the next session of Parliament, and he certainly doesn’t need his senior deputy, Thomas Mulcair, veering stupidly close to conspiracy theorism about the lack of firm evidence, in his view, to certify the death of Osama Bin Laden. Layton will have trouble enough rounding his juvenile caucus into an effective, coherent opposition force without such idle shots from the lip - and all the more so since the Dippers will be confronted by a Prime Minister who has incontestably become one of the shrewdest, craftiest political leaders Canada has seen for a very long time.
For now, though, credit where credit is due. Jack Layton has ascended a very high political mountain and in so doing redefined Canadian politics. The fact that in the process, he destroyed Gilles Duceppe and the Blocheads can only be seen as a bonus: we are well rid of that mob, and primarily because of the New Democrats, the country is the better for it.
The Grits:
Conventional wisdom has it that the Liberal Party of Canada has been declining at flank speed for the last half dozen years and more – and there’s a great deal of evidence in support of that analysis. Deterioration has been plain to see, starting with the endless leadership derby following Jean Chretien and let it be said, his three majority victories. The Grits have since been bouncing leaders around like rubber balls: Paul Martin, Stephane Dion, Michael Ignatieff. Martin managed to squeeze out a minority government in 2004, but thereafter the Liberals were sliding toward oblivion – and have now reached it.
But in the context of the election just concluded, let’s not ignore Ignatieff’s signal contribution to decline and fall, beginning with his ill-considered decision (against the advice of several veteran Liberal insiders) to force the non-confidence vote which defeated Stephen Harper’s minority government. Ignatieff was determined to have at it against the Conservatives, but he woefully misjudged both the mood of the population – and more ominiously, the remarkable maturing of Harper as strategist, tactician, and above all, hard-nosed and even ruthless politician.
The anti-Tories can fulminate all they want about Harper the control freak, Harper the humourless drone, Harper the secretive political dictator – but the fact is he got his majority and in the process – with assistance from the NDP – reduced the Liberals to dry toast. The Prime Minister played a decisive role in demolishing the Grits, to be sure, but the principal reason for the Liberal death throes was Ignatieff’s curious inability to connect with voters, to persuade them he was not in fact a Johnny-Come-Lately to Canadian politics, and most importantly, to convince all of us he was anything more than an oddly vacant egghead. In spite of his best efforts to be “one of the guys”, Ignatieff was anything but: detached in a strange sort of way from reality, and therefore detached from the people whose votes he sought.
And it says something, I think, about the man who within 72 hours of leading the Liberal Party to disaster would cheerfully disclose he’d accepted a sinecure at the University of Toronto. He would go back to teaching law, and political science, even as the 40 plus Liberals who lost their Commons seats under his leadership were wondering, and no doubt worrying about their future prospects. Not so for Michael Ignatieff, though: he’ll do just fine, and presumably will give little thought to his former colleagues who are now – in a manner of speaking – on the streets.
So Ignatieff will spend his summer busily preparing courses for incoming students at the U of T. I assume the post-graduate lectures will concentrate exclusively on the art of losing elections, because Michael Ignatieff clearly has no understanding of how they’re won.